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Igor Sechin Presents Keynote Speech at SPIEF Energy Panel

Chief Executive Officer of Rosneft Oil Company Igor Sechin has presented a keynote speech "New global energy market: crusade against Russian oil and where is Noah's Ark?" at SPIEF Energy Panel.

The event was attended by Dai Houliang, Chairman of the Board of Directors of CNPC, Alok Kumar Gupta, Chief Executive Officer of ONGC Videsh, Pedro Aquino, President and CEO of OPHIR (Oil & Petroleum Holding International Resources) and Nobuo Tanaka, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of ICEF (Innovation for Cool Earth Forum), a non-profit low-carbon development initiative of the Japanese government; Executive Director of the International Energy Agency in 2007-2011.

The discussion was moderated by Alexander Dynkin, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences and President of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In his speech, the head of Rosneft analysed the causes of the current situation in the global economy, and drew the attention of the energy panel to possible solutions to the problems encountered.


Igor Sechin said that the changes taking place in the global marketplace dictate the need to find operational solutions to organise the industry under the new conditions. He said sanctions were destroying the institution of contractual obligations, the judicial and legal system, and the financial and industrial sectors. As a result, the consequence of the current sanctions against Russia is a global economic crisis.

According to Sechin, the unprecedented measures taken by the US against Russia are contrary to the basic foundations of the legal system of any modern constitutional democracy. "The US understands sanctions as a kind of magic wand to achieve political and economic goals. When market mechanisms do not achieve the goals and political opportunities are absent, the US resorts to sanctions without any justification," says the head of Rosneft.

In 2021, the US Treasury Department said that sanctions should act as a tool to achieve political goals, he recalled. In this context, the US Treasury categorises out-of-control countries, international technology platforms and innovation as risk factors that undermine the global dominance of the US financial system.

"It follows from the principles stated by the US Ministry of Finance that one does not need to be a criminal to be subject to sanctions. It is enough that the actions of an entity contradict or simply compete with the political or economic objectives of the US", the head of Rosneft stressed.

Thus, sanctions that are imposed on "spurious grounds" are falsified and illegitimate. U.S. Administration officials accuse our Company of supplying Iranian oil to Europe in a completely unfounded and unjustified manner. Under pressure from the US administration, Greece detained a Russian tanker in April 2022. A Greek court ruled in favour of the US, accusing the vessel of transporting Iranian oil. A Greek court, under pressure from the US administration, ruled in favour of the US, upholding the confiscation and shipment of the oil to the states, even though the ship had not violated any laws. Later, however, it had to reverse this decision. The US and the EU, in their "sanctions arbitrariness" of putting anyone under sanctions, do not even require the collection of any evidence, according to Sechin.

The EU Court of Justice ruling on sanctions imposed on Rosneft in 2014 was an example of so-called "justice". The EU court acknowledged that the Company s not related to the events in Ukraine, but rejected the Company's claims to lift the unlawful sanctions. The court considered that Rosneft's activities affect Russia's development and budget. The EU Court of Justice has thus explicitly recognised that the purpose of the sanctions against Rosneft is to harm Russia's economy and its citizens, and that it is permissible and lawful to do so if it meets the EU's foreign policy objectives, the Rosneft head said.

"We can state that the concept of presumption of innocence, introduced back in the third century in Roman law, has now been destroyed: everyone who is sanctioned is guilty, without any basis, which justifies any illegal actions," Igor Sechin concluded.


Unbridled dollar emission is the underlying cause of inflation in the US. "The global crisis of 2008 was not overcome, but it was rather flooded with money emission. The emission possibilities which first seemed to have no limits were exhausted sometime in 2020-2021. At the same time, any significant increase in Federal Reserve rates means a risk of recession and a sharp rise in the cost of debt servicing (for the debts of the government, corporate debts and the debts of individuals). Therefore, the base cause of the inflation in the U.S. is the unrestrained emission of the U.S. dollar," said Igor Sechin.

The head of Rosneft noted that the inflation multipliers were the politically motivated acceleration of the green transition in the absence of economically sensible technologies, the artificial disruption of supply chains due to the pandemic, and the unprecedented anti-Russian sanctions.

"Effective fight against global inflation through rates increase is unpromising, because it will lead to the collapse of financial system. The increase of Federal Reserve rate is now radically behind and will continue to stay behind real inflation," stressed Igor Sechin.


Anti-Russian sanctions have essentially finished the "green transition"; the residual "green rhetoric" completely contradicts the real practice aimed to replace Russian hydrocarbons at all costs, Igor Sechin said.

In fact, the "green transition" is no longer needed as a way to manipulate the market at the availability of other rougher and more radical ways. In particular, an assault with the purpose of stealing someone else’s property, committed with violence, or "robbery with violence", as it’s described by article 162 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.

The "green revolution", the anti-pandemic measures, and the hybrid war against Russia – all that are consistent attempts to organize a change of the economic and technological order in the interests of the current dominant.

The current global financial and economic model reeling either on expansion and bringing over the additional resources, or through money emission, has exhausted itself, Sechin said. Perhaps the result includes the outflow of investment capital from Europe, where market parameters have deteriorated sharply, to the U.S.

At the same time, America today remains the only global financial and economic regulator and the economic dominant, Rosneft SEO said.


Europe, having accepted the imposed anti-Russian sanctions, has faced social degradation, said chief executive of Rosneft.

"In essence, it is the dismantling of the "social market economy” model. Both its social and market sides. This is the collapse of the great model of post-war Germany: the "Prosperity for All" [Wohlstand für Alle] by Ludwig Erhard and Alfred Müller-Armack, – something that Germans were so proud of and believed to be an example for the whole world," Igor Sechin said.

As a result of the anti-Russian sanctions that Europe was foist on to implement, it has now completely lost its self-identity and its chances of becoming not only a political, but also a competitive economic pole, alternative to the United States, Rosneft's Chief Executive Officer said.

By abandoning Russian oil and gas, Europe has become the region with the highest energy costs in the world, he added. "The energy suicide that Europe is committing will have long-term consequences. We already see a decline of its economic potential as well as a loss of its competitiveness and direct losses for investors," Igor Sechin said.

Thus, in France stock index CAC 40 dropped by 18%, German DAX by 19%, and in Italy by 22%. Cumulative losses of the investors in these three European countries have already amounted to about $1.6 trillion.

The German producer price index grew by 33.5% in April to last year’s level, and the energy spending was up by 87.3%, substantially reducing the competitiveness of the largest European economy.

Besides, the European producer price index rose by 37.2% versus the previous year. The harmonized aggregated index of consumer energy prices rose by 35.6% in the EU, and by about 60-80% in Belgium, the Netherlands and Estonia.

The fall of almost all stock indices is happening on the background of growing capitalization of the US three biggest military-related companies [RAYTHEON, LOCKHEED MARTIN, NORTHROP GRUMMAN] that year to date has risen by 19%, while the S&P 500 index is down by 23%.

As a result of the significantly accelerated inflation processes due to the increase of geopolitical risks, disruption of well-established logistical chains and deepening of energy crisis we see a structural growth in the cost of vital goods for the European economy.

"Thus, prices for metals rose by dozens percent, and the growth of fertilizers price was even above 180%, which was largely the consequence of the rejection of cheap gas feedstock. The rise in prices for wheat, barley and corn was about 80%, and we can expect further growth due to the lagged effect of the rising fertilizers prices," Igor Sechin said.

The steel industry could be the hardest hit, because without Russian gas it would be impossible to maintain a continuous steelmaking cycle. A complete withdrawal from Russian gas would bring the steel industry to a halt and cause the collapse of all industrial production in Europe and an increase in unemployment, according to experts.

All in all, according to J.P. Morgan, the rise of energy prices in 2022 alone may cost the Eurozone 550 billion euros extra – an equivalent of 4.5% of its GDP.

More and more Germans feel that their previous level of consumption is not affordable anymore. The German Minister of Economy Robert Habeck has already admitted that the country would have to face a "new poverty".


The immunity of private property, binding contracts, legal protection of transactions and contracts, priority of law - all these "rules" previously observed by all participants in the international market are no longer valid. All "rules" are set and changed by the US in its interests, said Igor Sechin, chief executive of Rosneft.

The “rules-based order" is a mantra which means the American-centred world and the rules that they invented themselves, and which Americans like to repeat all the time and blame Russia and China for violating it, he recalled.

But previously these rules were at least marked by the regulator and were more or less observed publicly, – these are the immunity of private property, the contractual obligations, the legal protection of transactions and contracts, the priority of law... Now the so-called "rules-based order" recognizes the only rule – all the rules are set by a single regulator that changes them according to its own interests. No other "rules" exist. The outcome is that we have the destruction of the market, a unipolar world with the "pole" that has flown off the handle, Igor Sechin said.


Constant change of priorities, national regulations and political targeting, with advancement of the green agenda, the pandemic and energy shortages – all lead to shareholders' distrust to the changing agenda and reluctance to invest in the long term, Igor Sechin said in his report.

"In this environment, short-term investments gain priority, and companies focus on increasing dividends while minimizing investments in development," the CEO of Rosneft said.

In Sechin's opinion, this is exactly the path taken by oil and gas majors, which have placed the main emphasis not on ensuring the long-term and sustainable supply of affordable energy to consumers, but on the implementation of short- and medium-term projects with short payback period and early profits to support the share prices, as well as on asset optimization, which often means the sale of assets that provide returns in the long term.

He used Exxon Mobil, the American company, as an example, as its shares have reached the new maximum driven by high oil prices, rising dividends and buyback of shares, though the company is ramping up neither investments nor production.

In general, over the past 5 years the total upstream capital expenditures of the majors have declined by 29%. Earned, or – more accurately! – the money saved on investment, is allocated by companies to dividends and share buybacks, the spending for which has increased by 31% over the same period. Therefore, as Sechin thinks, the strategy of increasing the immediate profits does boost the stock quotes but leads to stagnation fundamentally.

"I would like to draw your attention to the following fact: 83% of the world’s primary energy is provided by traditional sources," Sechin said.

According to J.P. Morgan, amid the rapid growth of the economies of developing countries and their efforts to improve their standards of living and quality of life, the growth of global energy demand will outpace the growth of energy supply by 20%. "To address the shortage of oil alone, by 2030, the world will need additional investments of $400 billion. However, as already mentioned, amid investment cuts by the majors, this level is unlikely to be achieved, and the oil shortage may persist for a long time," the CEO of Rosneft said.

The White House's reaction to the market behaviour of American companies is demonstrated by Mr Biden's address to American oil and gas companies, Igor Sechin supposed. He also suggested, that, having exhausted the sanctions resources with regard to Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, the Administration can get to the market players in the United States.

As the president of the USA mentioned in his letter, in his opinion, there is no question that Russia and its president Vladimir Putin are principally responsible for the situation the American families got caught up in due to inflation and surging energy prices. At the same time, the refineries in the USA are getting historically high-profit margins. "My administration is ready to use all reasonable and appropriate tools… and emergency authorities to increase refinery capacity," the CEO of Rosneft quoted the Biden's letter.

As Igor Sechin noted, there was a reaction from American production and refining companies to this letter. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers and American Petroleum Institute answered to Mr Biden. Here are some quotes: "Refined product prices are determined on the global markets… U.S. refineries are operating at or near maximum utilization… About half of U.S. refinery shutdowns are conversions to renewable fuel production… federal agencies are following through on your campaign promises to make capital formation more expensive for traditional energy projects." And finally, "Today’s situation did not materialize overnight and will not be quickly solved… today’s challenges are largely the result of high crude prices due to 1) a supply/demand imbalance, 2) logistics reshuffling as the world emerges from the pandemic, strong consumer demand, the ban on Russian products, and 3) policy decisions made at the federal and state levels over many years."

"All of this suggests that having exhausted the sanctions resources with regard to Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, the Administration can get to the market players in the United States," Igor Sechin said.


Despite all statements about unconditional withdrawal from Russia, to this day, BP continues to be Rosneft's largest private shareholder with a 19.75% stake, Igor Sechin noted.

BP also continues to hold stakes in major joint projects, including Taas-Yuryakh, Kharampurneftegaz, and Ermak Neftegaz.

According to Sechin, all these actions speak more about the desire to remain Rosneft's stakeholder and wait until unfavourable geopolitical situation is over, incurring no real losses. We see similar actions from some Western majors. The announcement of the withdrawal came as a surprise to Rosneft, unwarranted in terms of our companies' successful thirty-year partnership, and not caused by the commercial interests of BP and its shareholders. BP's Russian business had brought it $36 billion in revenue since 2003 with only $10 billion in total investment.

"At the same time, even though Russia’s forex reserves get arrested and international assets of Gazprom get seized Russia does not create any obstacles for foreign companies to continue their operations, for example, for dividends payable to BP," the CEO of Rosneft marked.

As he said, the only restriction imposed by the Russian regulators is that the cash is to be remitted to special accounts, which will be done for BP – that is going to happen after the shareholders' meeting and the amount will be around a billion of dollars.

"But we, however, expect that, in case of Russian assets expropriation attempts, the Russian Government will take like-for-like adequate response," Igor Sechin summed up.


Instead of mutual trust and cooperation, we are now witnessing a reversal of trends from globalisation to deeper regionalisation, Igor Sechin said.

"Involvement in international division of labor increases a country's vulnerability to sanctions. Looking at the scale of sanctions pressure on Russia, other countries now understand that the less they are integrated into the global community, the less likely their markets will be affected by the crisis," he marked.

According to the CEO of Rosneft, similar trends can be observed in the gas market as well: the U.S. is trying to convince European countries that they will not be left without this energy resource under any scenario of reduced Russian gas supplies. Now, even major LNG producers like Australia, Qatar and the U.S. are unable to quickly ramp up gas production.

"The U.S. efforts may increase the production to the amount which is less than 10% of the gas volume needed to replace Russian gas. Gas, therefore has to be sourced from other markets – mainly the Asian – in order to meet the European demand," Sechin specified.

As a result, Europe is already buying LNG intended for developing countries that cannot compete in price. Thus, according to available estimates, between October 2021 and June 2022, more than 10 LNG shipments to Pakistan under long-term contracts were cancelled amid rising demand and prices in Europe. The result was a major energy crisis, as daily power cuts in cities reached 12 hours in May and June and 16 hours in the countryside.

At the same time, Igor Sechin said, the demand for cheaper substitutes is also growing and the share of coal in the energy balance is increasing. According to his estimates, coal generation in Europe, which already grew by 18% in 2021, may grow by more than a third in 2022. "Here we see a real "coal renaissance" in many ways undermining global efforts to reduce the carbon footprint," he added.

"The rhetoric of Western countries regarding the need of decarbonisation acceleration contradicts their own practice – they call for the carbon footprint reduction, but in fact they increase it while destroying other countries’ economies," the CEO of Rosneft summed up.


The crisis and deglobalisation will inevitably induce changes in the global financial system, in particular, the creation of the world's new reserve currencies, Igor Sechin said.

He recalled that current mechanisms have evolved since the U.S. abandoned the tie of the dollar to gold. To Sechin's mind, these mechanisms will change in the near future.

"A disproportionately high U.S. dollar’s share of central banks' reserves amounting to about 60% which is almost three times the U.S. share of the global economy represents a clear signal that there is a need for change," said Sechin.

"Now the borders of the unipolar world are already clearly delineated, and the process of change in payment systems will go on rather quickly, which may lead to the creation of new world’s reserve currencies," he supposed. "This process is irreversible and will induce a change in international trade geography in the future."

According to Sechin, the role of the euro as the world's reserve currency decreases, as the Russian energy imports ban as well as the declining competitiveness of the European economy have already led to capital flight and an 8% depreciation of the euro against the dollar. Thus, by banning trade relations with Russia, Europe has limited the circulation of its currency, making it less attractive for international settlements.

"With the blocking of Russian foreign exchange reserves, the dollar and the euro have lost their status of reliable currencies as it became evident that access to them may be limited at any time," Igor Sechin said.

He urged to move bolder and faster toward increasing the share of payments in national currencies, boosting the volume of mutual trade and goods supplies, fostering contacts between national banks and amplifying the integration of different countries’ national payment systems. It is no doubt that joint efforts of Russia and its partners should not be limited to the financial sector, Sechin thinks, as mutual investments could be another area to strengthen cooperation. At the same time, it will help reduce dependence on the dollar and the euro.

"Expanding partnerships and building joint institutions will create a viable alternative to a unipolar world," the CEO of Rosneft summed up.


As the Chief Executive Director of Rosneft Igor Sechin marked, recession and stagflation are the near prospects of the U.S. economy.

"The word of the year is "deleveraging", or debt escaping," he mentioned. "While earlier money used to flow from one market to another, nowadays most of the markets (except hydrocarbons) are slumping at the same time, including gold which is traditionally used in reserves. The dollar is rising as a last resort. And it is rising against the backdrop of a systemic inflation in the U.S." Thus, according to Sechin, "at the moment the U.S. is the main beneficiary of the crisis through capital inflow and the strengthening of the dollar."

At the same time, an inevitable increase in interest rates is pushing up the costs of servicing the huge U.S. debt. "And in the near term – recession and stagflation. The start of the recession is already well visible. American S&P 500 index has slumped by 23% year-to-date," Sechin said.


As for the poorest countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America as well as developing countries that do not have their own affordable energy resources, sanctions induce fuel, energy, and food prices growth there, the head of Rosneft marked.

"The prospects are hunger and economic collapse. It is admitted even by those responsible for the sanctions bacchanalia themselves. Is this Russia to blame? The answer for these countries is obvious. For them, the essence of the Western sanctions policy is clear – it is a discriminatory, even racist policy," Igor Sechin said.

As he continued, the attitude to such policy was most delicately characterized by Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who stated that the West has a delusion that its problems are the world's problems but refuses to solve problems of other countries.

As Igor Sechin mentioned, China has initially built its tremendous economic growth as a part of the global economy. "Nevertheless, the US has now declared China to be the main threat, both economic and, now, military-political," the Rosneft chief said. Chinese leader Xi Jinping, describing the growing technological confrontation between the US and China, assumed that "technological innovation has become a major battleground of the global stage, and competition for technological dominance will become unprecedentedly fierce".

By losing its leadership position in key 21st-century technologies, the U.S. is trying to contain China, which has already become the undisputed leader in some of them, and may overtake the U.S. within the next decade in another, Igor Sechin said. China has significantly increased its R&D spending, reaching $580 billion in 2020, comparable to that of the U.S. China is the largest 5G market in the world and one of the largest manufacturers of 5G equipment. Thus, out of the five major suppliers of 5G equipment, two are Chinese and none are from the U.S. Having lost its competitive advantage in this area, the U.S. has acted in a non-market way by imposing harsh sanctions on Huawei, Igor Sechin said.


An integrated global market is dead. All previous institutions and mechanisms of its regulation operate in a non-economic regime, in fact – in a war mode, said Igor Sechin.

In these circumstances, it is impossible to overestimate the role of Russia in the formation of a new markets configuration and new institutions of interaction among countries. Countries that are seeking independence from dictate and sanctions arbitrariness.

The country's leadership emphasizes strategic objectives: to ensure an economic breakthrough. "Leading institutions and experts increasingly understand that the goals of economic policy cannot lie within the economy only:

Hegel warned about this (the foundations of Hegelian dialectics – we studied at the second year of the University)," added the head of Rosneft.

Our goals – achieving technological sovereignty and increasing the efficiency of financial system, which must move from the applied task of "inflation targeting" transition to ensuring economic growth and effective interaction, stimulation and simplification of cooperation with our real, not ostensible, partners in the world, he said. "The movement toward technological sovereignty has already begun with the restoration of basic production chains disrupted by sanctions. We already see a movement towards new configuration of the oil market, where two price contours are being formed: a fair market price for friendly countries, and a premium, added to the price for unfriendly ones, which will be used to pay off our costs associated with the violation of rules and obligations by our former partners," Igor Sechin said.


"Russia, with its energy potential and portfolio of first-class projects, such as Vostok Oil, can meet the world's long-term needs for affordable energy resources and certainly is such saving Ark," Igor Sechin noted.

He emphasised that Vostok Oil is the world's largest, the only new project on a comparable scale.  The resource base of the project – 6.2 billion tons of oil – is confirmed by the results of large-scale geological exploration, detailed reports of world-class experts and international auditors.

Igor Sechin showed Energy Panel participants the oil from the Vostok Oil project, which is characterised with unique premium qualities – extremely low sulfur content from 0.01% to 0.1% and low density of about 40 API.

Project valuation by the largest international investment banks – J.P. Morgan – $114 bln, Raiffeisen – $90 bln, Citi – $86 bln, Goldman Sachs – $85 bln, Bank of America – $70 bln.

"Rosneft is already producing at the Vankor cluster fields, which are part of the Vostok Oil project, using the state-of-the-art technologies and demonstrating the highest efficiency indicators compared to the industry average," Igor Sechin noted.

A comprehensive exploration programme is being implemented in the project. Two exploration wells on the left bank of the Yenisei have produced oil this year and are expected to add about 100 million tonnes of reserves. It has been confirmed that Taimyr fields are characterized with abnormally high formation pressure up to 600 atmospheres which ensures high flow rates up to 720 m3/day after fracking.

"In general, the results of geological exploration are many times greater than predicted, which allows to confidently plan high levels of production for many decades, with a phased reaching of the volume of up to 115 million tons of oil in 2033," Igor Sechin said.

It should be noted that there are significant prospects for developing gas resource base, as confirmed by our discovery of the Zinichev field in the Taimyr Peninsula. Zinichev field with 384 bln m3 of gas reserves has been recognized by the expert community as the world's largest discovery of 2021.

"Vostok Oil project, unique in its scale, becomes a driving force that pulls the development of entire sectors of the real economy due to the multiplier effect of the investments made. In the context of decreasing investment in the oil and gas sector, Vostok Oil is the only project in the world capable to provide a stabilizing effect on the hydrocarbon markets, while having the highest efficiency and stability performance," Igor Sechin said. Delivery of the project will produce a huge positive effect for shareholders, ensuring capitalization growth and creating a powerful synergistic effect for the State, noted the head of Rosneft.

Thanks to the direct access to the transport artery of the Northern Sea Route, the project's dependence on politically unstable hydrocarbon supply chains is reduced, said Sechin.

"Implementation of the project does not cause any technological or resource difficulties for Rosneft. We have the necessary competence, knowledge and experience of implementing such projects. 98% of equipment and materials are domestically produced," said the head of the Company.

Sechin noted that pipe and other metal-intensive products are delivered on schedule under integral contracts with major Russian companies. More than half a million tons of supplies have already been delivered to construction sites.

More than a thousand units of special construction equipment have been delivered and are in operation, and a new vehicle service center of the Ural factory in Taimyr is in operation. Seven modern Russian arctic class drilling rigs have been assembled and are in operation, and five more drilling rigs are getting ready to spud.

Russian construction contractors (over 4,000 people and 2,000 vehicles) have been mobilized and are working around the clock. They are actively constructing the main technological facilities: Vankor-Payakha-Sever Bay trunk oil pipeline. 23 thousand piles have been driven in, more than 100 km of 800 mm diameter pipes have been welded in a string, development of quarries and construction of well pads are in progress as well as construction of power lines etc, all to the schedule.

Three new berth complexes were built and are operating on the Yenisei River as well as several storage bases for materials and equipment, this summer season three more berths will be completed.

The construction of the oil loading Sever Bay terminal is in active phase, artificial land plots are being built in the water area of the Bay, three of five moorings for tanker fleet are being constructed. The aviation infrastructure of Igarka, Norilsk and Dixon is being expanded. Rotation villages are being constructed.

"This means that the project lives and develops as planned, the inevitable difficulties are being overcome, but we have full confidence that all the tasks will be completed," said Igor Sechin.

"It must be done before the FLOOD. We will be glad to see our friends participating in the project of building the Noah's Ark of the World Economy," the head of Rosneft concluded.


CNPC Chairman Dai Houliang said in his speech that increasing international geopolitical risks are a challenge to the global energy transition, energy cooperation and security of energy supplies.

"In such a situation, we all feel the importance of cooperation more strongly than ever. Adhering to the strategy of internationalisation and openness, following the principles of mutual benefit and strict adherence to agreements, CNPC will establish cooperation and actively explore new energy cooperation opportunities with international partners," Dai Houliang said.

He believes the green low-carbon transition is the trend of the times, with oil and gas continuing to play an important role in the world. In this context, CNPC not only consistently continues to develop oil and gas projects in China, but also implements innovation and low-carbon development projects.



J. Biden letter to US fuel companies

American Petroleum Institue response to Biden

Information Division
18 June 2022 г.